Getting started in Business Intelligence (BI) on a budget

This is a simple demonstration as to how you and your firm can get started turning the data that you already have into the information you desperately need using tools you already own. The task of turning data into information for decision-making is the essence of business intelligence (BI).

So, here we go.

Everybody has data

Everybody has data. Many companies are wallowing in data. What they are lacking is “information.”

Read my posts here and here for more about the differences between data, information and knowledge.

Quick! Take five or ten minutes to peruse the following table of data and write down everything that you see in these data to help make decisions about the firm’s future.

I will give you one hint: the column identified as ‘ARPAC’ is “Average Revenues per Active Customer.”

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Okay. Times up.

Hold on to your list.

Turning data into information—simply, easily, cheaply

In order to produce what follows, I used only Microsoft® Excel™ and its native ability to access databases to fetch and refresh data.

Here’s the first graph I produced:

This is nothing more than a simple bar graph of column “SOSales” (Sales Order Sales, as opposed to Invoiced Sales, for example) shown in the data above. I used Microsoft’s native capabilities to add a “trend line.”

By looking at this simple graph, several questions might come to mind that would bear further investigation:

1. Why have our monthly sales dropped from just over $8 million a month to an average of about $6 million per month over these 29 months?
2. Why or how were able to produce about $11 million in sales in July of 2008? What did we do differently? How can we build on what we learned in that experience?
3. Is my drop in sales related to lost customers?

The next graph that I produced looked like this:

This graph answered my question number three above—at least partially. Month-to-month our firm has stayed pretty steady in terms of the number of active customers served. The firm is hovering right in the 250-customers-per-month range.

On the one hand, that is good. It means the firm is steady in this regard, but it does provoke other questions that would need to be answered through further digging:

1. We are serving about 250 customer per month, but is the same 250 customers, or do I have high turnover rates for customers?
2. Are we constantly having to spend precious marketing resources to capture new customers, or do we have a high volume of repeat business?

But wait! If we are not loosing customers (at least in numbers), but our sales are falling off (in aggregate), what is that telling us?

The third graph I produced was “Average Sales per Active Customer” (month-to-month). This graph clearly shows that between January 2008 and May 2010, the firm’s average sale per active customer fell from about $32,000 per customer to under $25,000 per customer.

Here again, this graph immediately provides clues worthy of further, more detailed, investigation:

1. Are these different customers buying less product? Or, are we serving pretty much the same customers, but they are just buying less from us?
2. Either way, we should figure out why: Are they buying similar quantities, but our prices (and, perhaps, margins) have shrunk over this period? Or, are they buying smaller quantities of merchandise or services from us?
3. Either way, we should find out why: If they are buying smaller quantities, is some of that business going to our competitors?

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Next steps

As you can see, turning the data into information allows our mind to quickly digest it and move toward decision-making. In some cases—perhaps many cases, when you first start—the process will lead to further information gathering.

On the other hand, you will sometimes discover that tribal knowledge already present in your organization will help you take immediate steps to begin making more money tomorrow than you are making today. Frequently, those steps involve no investment at all. Sometimes all it take is understanding better what is happening. Other times, a simple policy change permits significant increases in Throughput and profits.

After all, isn’t that really what you want to do—not spending six-figures on a new business intelligence “solution”?

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Read more here about unlocking “tribal knowledge.”

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How I did it step-by-step

1. Identify the data
2. Build a SQL Server view or query
3. Connect Microsoft Excel to the data
4. Build the graphs

Total time: about 2 to 2.5 hours

Business Intelligence for the coming year

Recently I was asked by a business writer for my recommendations for “BI New Year’s Resolutions.” I doubt my response was what the writer had hoped for, since many business blogs and publications garner support from advertisers. And, when you are doing that for a living, you really want to write things that are supportive of the kinds of products your advertisers supply. These days, since business intelligence (BI) is all the rage, there are a lot of dollars being proffered for advertising of upscale business intelligence solutions.

For better or worse, I don’t have to worry about that. (Of course, my income is smaller as a result.) But, here’s what I wrote—along with some other advice to round it out.

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BI New Year’s Resolution

RESOVED – I will never, ever, ever again undertake a BI project just because someone in my organization thinks “it might pay-off.” Instead, I will faithfully resolve to calculate—in advance—the expected ROI (return on investment) for the project.

I have learned my lesson: BI is not like an engine oil additive: departments can’t just “pour it in and expect the company to run smoother, faster, longer and get higher mileage” through some mystical power brought to them by the BI fairy.

In calculating the ROI, I will also remember that “approximately right” is fart better than “precisely wrong,” so will not waste my firm’s precious resources trying to hone a number to perfection before taking action—especially in this tough economy.

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The second question to which this writer asked me to reply regard “top BI trends” for 2012. Once again, I’m pretty sure I let her down. Here’s what I wrote:

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BI Trends for 2012

In 2012, an increasing number of small-to-mid-sized firms will discover that, to get started in BI, they do not need to make six-figure investment. In fact, they may not even need to make a five-figure investment.

If they can unlock “tribal knowledge” and begin to understand what to measure in order to make a real difference in the Throughput of their system (i.e., the whole firm), chances are they can make use of tools they already have like Microsoft® Excel™ to capture data from their ERP system directly via ODBC (open database connectivity) or OLEDB (object linking and embedding for databases). This may lead to insights, and those insights may lead them to market segmentation or other innovative profit-improvers. They do not need expensive software to build a simple, yet valuable, dashboard so they can start making more money sooner—rather than later.

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In the next post, I will provide a concrete example of how simple BI can be done using tools your firm probably already owns.

(c)2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Richard D. Cushing

Finding Common Ground Between CFO and COO–Part 9

[Continuation]

So, what are the keys to constructing irrefusable offers (Mafia offers)?

Market segmentation

The CFO and COO must come to understand the key components that go into their trading partners’ experience and what their trading partners view as improved results. More importantly, they must begin to see that different trading partners or different market segments have different experiences and seek different improved results.

In order to get a better understanding of how to segment your market, the CFO and COO should employ a combination of market analytics (business intelligence) and tools to unlock “tribal knowledge” from within the organization itself.

As the figure above suggests, different target markets will find value in differing aspects of “the offer.” Some will find the value in a product’s ability to be customized or adapted to their specific application. Others will find greater value in how the product is delivered (speed or online). Still others will find greater value in intangibles such as VMI (vendor-managed inventory) or the ability to receive small, more frequent shipments,while achieving the same price-breaks as larger orders. It is impossible to know until the CFO and COO take time to analyze and understand how and why they sell—or fail to sell—into various markets.

Capabilities

Another factor concerning which the CFO and COO must come to agreement regards the firm’s capabilities. What can be done within the firm’s capabilities to supply an improved customer experience for various segments of the market? In addition, what can be done—still within the firm’s capabilities—to help assure that the customers in various market segments are getting better results than the competition is delivering?

Understand that, until the firm’s various market segments are understood clearly, it is impossible to even formulate the right questions around “capabilities” and how to apply them toward the creation of irrefusable offers.

Creating an operating partnership with your customers

The really great and long-lasting irrefusable offers stand above the rest because they create a durable competitive advantage for both the vendor and the customer. The offer brings your firm and your customer’s firm into an operating “partnership” that produces better—and improving—results for your customers while increasing your own firm’s Throughput and profits. This combination makes three very happy parties—the CFO, the COO and the customer(s) involved.

This may mean the such irrefusable offers may sometimes need to be tendered to the customer at a higher level than the typical “buyer.” Creating and presenting the offer may involve the CFO and COO in joint discussions with their counterparts in the customer’s organization, where the value of the irrefusable offer may be more fully understood and appreciated.

Establishing these offers and resulting agreements at higher levels knits the customer’s management team with you—the vendor’s management team—in a way that makes it increasingly difficult to dislodge the vendor from the customer’s new way of doing business. Customer loyalty becomes a strong factor at this point, and the number of “touches” between the customer and the vendor tend to increase over time.

[To be continued…]

Finding Common Ground Between the CFO and COO – Part 4

[Continued from Part 3]

The Banking Trade

Our next example of how businesses might leverage business intelligence (BI) to segment their markets and thus allow them to increase throughput in significant ways comes from the banking industry. In this case, a bank creates a data bridge between a legacy database and databases maintained by its departments. The new application gives branch managers and other users access to business intelligence to determine who their most profitable customers were and which customers might be above-average targets for cross-selling new products.

Implementing these new tools liberated the IT staff from the task of generating special analytical reports for the departments and gave department personnel relatively autonomous access to a far richer source of customer-related data.

However, the bank need not stop with “cross-selling.” Consider that if the bank has information on “the most profitable customers,” they could dig deeper to determine the geographic and demographic corollaries among their “most profitable customers.” Uncovering and analyzing these corollaries employed in conjunction with a simultaneous thrust to unlock what the bank’s employees know—that is, tribal knowledge—might help the bank develop carefully targeted irrefusable offers. Such offers would undoubtedly allow the bank to

• Sell more existing products and services to new customers
• Create new offers that will attract new customers from the “most profitable” demographic and geographic market segments
• Create new offers that may interest existing customers and make offers that may be even more profitable for the bank

 

Your Business

Regardless of your industry, it is highly likely that a joint effort made by the CFO and the COO to unlock and join two valuable sources of data will lead to many valuable ideas for increasing throughput. Those two sources of data are

• What is available through (formal or informal) business intelligence about your customers
  
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• What is available—but probably undocumented and poorly understood—in the minds of your managers and employees in the form of tribal knowledge.

For this reason, I strongly suggest that for most SMEs (small-to-mid-sized business enterprises) the very first place to look at rapid ROI from business intelligence is to be found in market segmentation.

Understanding Your Customers’ World

One of the errors made by CFOs and COOs in most organizations use a definition of “quality” that is totally objective. After all, how else could or should the firm measure it? Most use a definition along the lines of “without defect” or “within tolerances” or “meeting or exceeding specifications.”

Toyota, however—the firm that came from behind to become a dominating automobile and light-truck manufacturer throughout the world—has learned and predicates it operations on an entirely different definition of quality. Toyota’s measure of quality is:

Does the product make the customer’s experience and results better or not?

Toyota’s concept of quality originated from concepts introduced to Japan in the 1950s by W. Edwards Deming. It was Deming who said:

“Constantly improve the design of product and service. This obligation never ceases. The consumer is the most important part of the production line.”

As a result, Toyota’s measure of quality takes into account, not just what the customer buys, but also:

• Who buys the product: Because the who will lead to different expectations and different feelings about the experience and the results expectations.
• When the product is purchased: Because the circumstances leading to the purchase of the vehicle will also contribute significantly to defining the experience and the results expectations of the buyer.
• Why the product is selected: Because the why is another significant contributing factor to the buyer’s experience and to defining the buyer’s expected results.
• Where the product is purchased: Sometimes product purchases are driven by regional factors (e.g., climate, urban versus rural or back-woods). These factors will affect the buyer’s experience and results expectations.
• How the transaction is structured: The economic construct of the transaction may include multiple factors such as the duration of the warranty, the payment terms, the time of delivery or lead-time, and more. These factors also influence the buyer’s experience and the sense of results.

Segmenting the market requires the whole supply chain to understand the customer because, fact of the matter is, No one in the supply chain has made a sale until the end-user has made a purchase. This is why both the CFO and COO should seek first to understand their customers. Next they should seek to segment their market—because different customers buy under differing circumstances and for different reasons.

These actions should lead to a plan for the creation of irrefusable offers which should, in turn, lead to rapid ROI.

[To be continued…]

Finding Common Ground Between the CFO and COO–Part 3

[Continued from Part 2]

The concept of market segmentation—segmented down to a single customer, if necessary—has been driven to a large extent by consumers empowered by the Internet. (Here I use the term “consumer” in the broadest sense. In a supply chain, the “consumer” may be a company or even a buyer within a company in the supply chain.)

Consumers no longer need to be satisfied with what is available to them locally, regionally or even nationally. Instead, a buyer has virtually direct access to a whole world of manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, brokers and retailers offering a huge array of products, services, delivery methods and terms of service.

Many product offerings are configurable via the seller’s Web site to meet specific requirements or tastes. Too, frequently, the various sellers are willing to offer the products via custom-tailored terms, conditions, and delivery methods. We refer to this combination of product plus related delivery terms and options as the “augmented product” of the “offer.”

Employing Business Intelligence (BI) to Segment Your Market

Business intelligence—regardless of whether it is done with specific BI tools, or just by leveraging the native capabilities of Microsoft® Excel™—can help an business better understand who buys what from the firm, and why. Here are some examples:

Hospitality Industry

A hotel franchise uses BI analytical applications to compile statistics on average occupancy and average room rates to determine revenue generated per room. It also gathers statistics on market share and data from customer surveys from each hotel to determine its competitive position in various markets. Such trends can be analyzed year-by-year, month-by-month or day-by-day, thus giving the corporation a clearer picture of how each individual property is faring.

If these data were extended to include related matters such as

• Business versus pleasure occupancies
• Local event calendars by postal codes
• Other potentially influencing factors

Then the hotel chain could begin to discover who uses their services under what circumstances and, perhaps, why their customers chose their hotels over the chain’s competitors. With this information in hand, the chain would be in an increasingly better position to construct “offers”—preferably irrefusable offers—to their clientele (or prospects) based on dates, reasons for travel, and more.

Take for example a hotel where the occupancy rate is typically below 50 percent on Sundays through Wednesdays. How much time would it take to discover businesses in the region that bring in folks regularly for training, small group conferences or other business purposes during the week.

Having identified these business organizations, making them customized offerings would make sense. For some businesses and business purposes, a discount of 35 percent off the nightly rate might be sufficient to garner the business. For others, a steeper discount might be necessary because the folks to attend their events are typically paying out of their own pockets. So, offer them a flat rate of $69 per night and throw in a free shuttle to and from the airport and to and from the conference sessions.

Since the hotels truly variable cost (TVC) for filling an additional room or ten rooms is very small, almost every additional dollar of revenue gained through such offers will fall directly to the bottom line of the business.

Let us assume that (to make the math easy) a hotel typically rents its rooms for $200 per night (annual average). This hotel’s business intelligence analysis shows that Sundays through Wednesdays during the months of January through April, they are going to have an average of 50 empty (in-service) rooms per night. If this hotel can construct a compelling offer that will fill just half of those rooms (25 rooms) at $70 per night, that would be about 1,733 nights at $70, or $121,310 in additional revenues annually.

If we assume that the truly variable cost (TVC) per additional room per night is $10, then we must subtract $17,330 from this figure to get our throughput of $103,980. That is more than $100,000 in increased annual revenues even though the rooms are being let at far below the “going rate” via the irrefusable offer.

[To be continued…]

Business Intelligence, CPM and the Middle-Market

I want to take a moment to thank CFO Magazine for inviting me to be a part of the social media coverage for their 2011 Corporate Performance Management Conference in Dallas. It was, indeed, my pleasure and my privilege to be a part of this foray of theirs into social media connections with their audience, and I trust that they will continue to expand the application of social media in connection with their helpful events.

So, what did I learn while at this conference?

I learned much.

• I learned that there is a broad and increasing array of tools available for businesses to leverage as they begin or expand the business intelligence and corporate performance management efforts in their organizations.
  
• I learned that there is considerable confusion in the CPM (corporate performance management) marketplace over the application of various terms including “budgets” versus “forecasts”; the differences, similarities or where the line falls between “business intelligence” and “corporate performance management”; or even whether simply having a “budgeting” or “forecasting” system in place means that you are practicing “CPM”.
  
• I learned that many, many organizations in the small-to-mid-sized enterprise marketplace are increasingly sensible to the need for improved visibility and insights regarding their own businesses, the industries in which they participate, and the broader economics that affect them, their customers and their suppliers. Managers and executives are, therefore, turning to “business intelligence” to aid them in finding the answers they think they need.
  
• I learned that despite the tremendous interest in the middle-market for adventuring into business intelligence and CPM, most middle-market participants are still on the sidelines, mostly because they just don’t know where to start. At the same time, they are not yet convinced of an immediate ROI if they jump-in feet first.
  
• I learned that many organizations feel that they can do BI and CPM with Microsoft® Excel™ and/or Access™ and save “a ton of money” while still reaping the ROI rewards.
  
• I learned that most participants in major “forecast” and “budget” initiatives know that their processes are being undermined by “sandbagging” and “gaming,” but feel (more or less) helpless to stop these practices.
  
• I learned that when mandates are handed down from on-high (say, a parent company or corporate HQ for a division) saying, “We need you to do X next year,” that even the financial executives in the subsidiary company or division will “game the system” to satisfy the mandate—whether or not the “gaming” reflects reality.
  
• I learned that the vast majority of middle-market financial managers are still entrapped in cost-world thinking. Such executives and managers are far less likely to engage BI and CPM to discover ways to increase Throughput, and are far more likely to spend their time, energy and money in pursuit of the diminishing returns of cost-cutting.

Apart from the conference, my experience in working with an array of middle-market firms tells me that a great many executives and financial managers fall into one of two very large camps:

1. Those who feel they have no need for business intelligence or a comprehensive program of corporate performance management because they already know and understand all they need to know about their firm, how it operates, the industry(ies) in which they participate and the affects of the economy at large on their business.
   
2. Those who have set up some spreadsheets to analyze certain factors of their business and who, perhaps, actually create an annual budget. Many of these, therefore, feel like they are already doing “business intelligence” and “analytics” and “CPM.” Such folks generally have a sense that there is no significant ROI for them in doing more.

Given all of these different factors, I think it is good—an imperative, in fact—that organizations like CFO Magazine are sponsoring events and stimulating more conversation on these topics—especially in the middle market where most of the confusion appears to reside.

Let me hear your thoughts.

Implementing CPM in small business on a limited budget

Eric Lundberg’s presentation at CFO Magazine’s 2011 Corporate Performance Management Conference today was refreshing. Lundberg brought things back down from the stratosphere for the large number of small-to-mid-sized business finance people in attendance.

My sense is that many of the presentations thus far have set forward concepts of such a broad scope and relative complexity that they are far, far beyond the pale of immediate consideration by many of the firms represented at the conference. Many of the attendees with whom I have spoken are mere “beginners” in corporate performance management (CPM).

Now, do not get me wrong: I have done no scientific—or even non-scientific—polling on this subject. I say what I say based solely on conversations I have had with a relatively small handful of conference attendees.

Nevertheless, I believe that many of the folks in attendance came here really trying to find out answers to pretty basic questions about CPM. And, given the fact that Julia Homer presented—that 63 percent of CFOs surveyed are more pessimistic about the coming year than they were about last year—I would further surmise that most of them are looking for ways to implement some kind of business analytics and CPM with the smallest possible drain on their corporate cash-flow.

That is precisely why I found Eric Lundberg’s presentation so very refreshing. Lundberg introduced his remarks by saying that he wanted to present “practical applications of tools” that he and his team put in place at ALM. He went on to tell the crowd that, as CFO in a firm held by private equity, he is not in a position to "go out and spend $100,000" or more on sophisticated analytics tools. Therefore, he and his team have implemented substantial business analytics built mostly around “home-grown” applications—not the kind purchased from analytics application vendors.

Lundberg went on to describe—in considerable detail—a number of the analytics in use at ALM. Using these effective but relatively low-cost tools, Lundberg and his team have gained considerable insight into what makes—and keeps—their company profitable. They have already implemented rolling forecasts and have the facility to re-forecast every month. They also do a complete bottom-up forecast fresh every quarter.

I really believe that Lundberg’s presentation put a light at the end of the tunnel for many CFOs struggling with the question: “How can we begin gaining the advantages of business intelligence and analytics without ‘big bucks’ to invest in making it a reality?”

This is real innovation, and it is clear that the analytics Lundberg and his team have put in place at ALM are already making the firm more successful, even in the midst of the present economic doldrums. Sixty-three percent of CFOs today may be more pessimistic about the coming year than the year just past, but Lundberg has leveraged limited resources in a way that will make his firm far more likely to survive and even thrive.

Congratulations, Eric Lundberg! And thanks for giving more small businesses hope for embracing new management metrics and analytics despite severely constricted funds.

Heading to CFO Magazine’s 2011 Corporate Performance Management Conference

As I write this I am winging my way to Dallas, Texas, and the Hotel Fairmont for CFO Magazine’s 2011 Corporate Performance Management (CPM) Conference. CFO Magazine has asked me—given me the honor—of providing blog coverage of the event.
Two other outstanding gentlemen have been invited by CFO Magazine to blog (and Tweet) live from CPM2011. One is blogger, author and founder of CFOwise®, Ken Kaufman, and the other is Gary Cokins, who—while being Principal of Global Business Advisors at SAS—is also an author and blogger. I am much looking forward to meeting these fine writers and, frankly, I find myself humbled to be in the company of such accomplished executives.

The Speakers

As always, CFO Magazine has gathered a stellar array of speakers for this conference:

• Thomas H. Davenport – President’s Distinguished Professor of Information Technology and Management at Babson College and co-author of Competing on Analytics and Analytics at Work
• Dr. Kasthuri Henry – Professor and president of KasHenry, Inc.; Assistant Professor at Southern Illinois University; and Adjunct Professor at North Park University
• Eric Lundberg – Chief Financial Officer at ALM
• Wayne Eckerson – President of BI Leader Consulting and author of Performance Dashboards: Measuring, Monitoring, and Managing Your Business
• Christina Spade – Senior Vice-President of Affiliate Finance and Business Operations at Showtime Networks
• Christopher Poinsatte – Executive Vice-President and CFO of Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport
• Roger Blanken – Director of Finance at International Flavors and Fragrances, Inc.
• Curtis Neumann – Associated Director of FP&A at AT&T
• Jay Thompson – Managing Director at Protiviti

Supplemental Workshops

• 102 Improved Performance Management through a Unique Analytical Scorecarding System presented by Forrest Breyfogle, President & CEO of Smarter Solutions Inc.
• 201 Aligning Resources through Integrated Business Planning presented by John O’Rourke, VP Product Marketing at Oracle Corporation
• 301 Beyond the Numbers: Improve Your Company’s Performance in 30 Days with Visual Analytics presented by Kurt Lueck, Practice Director at Analytics8
• 303 Driving CPM with BPM: Unlocking Critical Information through Business Process Management presented by Vince Tornillo, Global Solutions Consultant at Ricoh Solutions Group and Evan McDonnell, VP at Appian

As you can see, it should be a great few days and I will do my best to bring you the highlights and value of the information being presented at this great conference.
For those of you with a special interest in supply chain metrics, pay particular attention to Roger Blanken’s presentation. He’s going to be talking about applying corporate performance metrics in the extended supply chain. International Flavors and Fragrances buys product from almost every area of the world and is wholly reliant on an broad and greatly extended supply chain. It should be interesting to hear what he has to say on the matter.
Also, I have this sense that I will be the irreverent one here. I expect to ask some tough questions and seek real answers from the experts.
One of the things that has me curious, for example, is this:

Who’s guarding the hen-house? CPM initiatives can involve a huge investment in capital and lead to increased operating expenses on an ongoing basis. What are the metrics that tell an organization that making that investment will provide real ROI; and what are the metrics by which the CPM initiatives themselves are measured as to success or failure?

Stand by for the next report soon.

Avoiding a costly “metrics obsession”

This year, 2011, is the centennial anniversary of the publication of Frederick Winslow Taylor’s autograph work, The Principles of Scientific Management. According to Taylor, almost every challenge management faced could be solved through the application of science. This view has become the staple of business schools for the better part of the last century, as a result.

Most small businesses—which, by the way, constitute the majority of all businesses in the U.S.—found the application of “scientific management” to be unduly burdensome. Many entrepreneurs lacked the training in the application of statistics or the time and energy to conduct “time and motion” studies when they knew—by the proverbial “seat of their pants”—that they could make a profit if they took this action or that one.

By the middle of the 20th century, another great voice in “scientific management,” W. Edwards Deming, was beginning to clear the air on the subject, a bit. While Deming certainly believed in gathering data and analyzing statistics in order to improve operations, he was also unequivocal about the limitations of “metrics” in achieving business success.

It was Deming who pointed out, for example, that “The most important figures for management of any organization are unknown and unknowable.” (Emphasis added.)

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“The most important figures for management of any organization are unknown and unknowable.” – W. Edwards Deming

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However, in the 1980s, along came the introduction of the “Personal Computer” (PC) and a plethora of software that enabled small businesses to collect, analyze, store and recall hundreds of thousands or even millions of data points. With the growth of computing power and falling costs of computer hardware and software, the collection of volumes of business data was soon within the reach of even the smallest of small businesses.

Even before the dominance of the Internet as a means for sharing data and collaborating across huge distances, many small-to-mid-sized business executives and managers had become enamored with the ability of computers to store and retrieve data. Even if they were entirely unaware of the pronouncements of Frederick Winslow Taylor, these executive and managers came to believe something along the lines of: “If we can collect and access enough data about our operations, we will be able to manage flawlessly.” The obsession with metrics had, indeed, come of age.

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The mantra of the “Obsession with Metrics” crowd: “If we can collect and access enough data about our operations, we will be able to manage flawlessly.”

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Another all too frequently heard proverb from the metrics-obsessed crowd is this: “You can’t manage what you can’t measure.” This, of course, has a tincture of truth to it, but is misconceived. There are all manner of things in which management is involved in “managing” in some way or other that are not not subject to objective quantification.

Here is a (non-exhaustive) list for your consideration:

• Corporate culture
• Customer relationships (we even have software that is supposed to do this!)
• Employee relationships (we have both software—human resource management applications—and entire third-party firms that engage in this kind of “management”)
• Customer loyalty (some companies even have “teams” or “departments” engaged in “managing” this aspect)
• Creativity / innovation
• Leadership
• Ethics
• Supply chains (especially the ‘relationships’ that really make them work; not just the inventory ins-and-outs)

Now, let me very clear here: I do not oppose the application of sound scientific principles to business when the application of such principles is done in an environment where cause-and-effect can be reliably demonstrated.

The correct statement is this one: “If you cannot define the ‘process’ and the theory underlying the cause-and-effect relationships in the ‘process,’ then you cannot manage it.” More importantly, if your theory is wrong, you will not get the results you expect.

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“If you cannot define the ‘process’ and the theory underlying the cause-and-effect relationships within the ‘process,’ then you cannot manage it.”

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This clear and correct statement explains why some companies actually see significant improvements in their business results after implementing new supply chain “management” (SCM), customer relationship “management” (CRM) or human resource “management (HRM) applications” while the vast majority of companies see little or no improvement.

Understanding your existing business processes (hint: it is likely they are NOT what you think they are) and tying them to a theory that will help you understand the cause-and-effect within your processes is not as hard as it seems. Nevertheless, most businesses fail to do so simply because they don’t know they need to do so! They think they already understand them—but do not.

That’s why no matter how many “metrics” they throw at the problem and—sadly—no matter how much money they throw at “fixing” things, they typically see little or no improvement in the things that really matter—like making more money!

There is a better way!

Misaiming about metrics

In order to protect the guilty, my source for some the silly statements I read about business management will not be revealed. Recently, I read this statement in a book about business metrics.

“Measurement is the connecting fiber that can make all the parts work together [in a business or government enterprise]. Achieving this kind of coordination and alignment is impossible without exceptional performance measurement.”

Let’s consider the metaphor of a multi-movement mechanical watch. You know: the kind of watch that keeps time in minutes and seconds, tells you the day of the week, the day of the month, and the phases of moon.

Now, without a doubt, a huge number of measurements were made, formulas developed, and calculations made about the sizes of the gears, the number of teeth in each gear, their placement in relationship to one another and more. A watch is all about measurement. A watch’s whole purpose “measurement.” It only exists “to measure.”

Nevertheless, it is not the accuracy of the measurements that make the watch fulfill its functions properly. When you get right down to it, it is not even the accuracy of the calculations that went into the design of hundreds of moving parts. It is not the accuracy of its manufacture that—at the root—cause the timepiece to function as a “system” and do precisely what is expected of it.

It isn’t any of those things—at the root!

What, then, is at the root of a “system” that functions smoothly, efficiently and effectively? At the root of that highly effective watch’s ability to function is something entirely distinct from “measurement.”

What is that mysterious thing that all too frequently escapes the business intelligence fanatics? What lies at the very core, but is often overlooked by the “metrics maniacs”? What seems to conceal itself from those who seem to be convinced that if management could just get enough “information”—enough metrics—they could manage flawlessly?

The answer is—as W. Edwards Deming told us years ago—“theory.”

The people who designed all of the components of the multi-movement “watch” that does what it does so smoothly, efficiently and effectively had a “theory” about watchmaking long before they ever drew the first plans or began fabricating the first gear.



The business metrics book from which I got the quote at the opening of this article contained a diagram similar to that above. But this diagram is wrong in lots of ways. But, really, only two are critical.

Here’s what the diagram ought to look like:



The foundation of making a business that works—and stays working—is theory. And, more importantly, if the only “goal” of your “measurements” and “management” is a bunch of departments surrounded by a compensation system, then your business probably won’t last too long—except by “luck.”

The “goal” of your “system” should be—indeed, must be—profit. And, as W. Edwards Deming put it so well, “Information tells you nothing without theory.” Theory is the context by which information is interpreted and made the basis for action to change the outcomes.

[Cross-posted at Kinaxis Supply Chain Expert Community.]

CFO Magazine’s 2011 Conference on Corporate Performance Management (CPM)

I am pleased to announce that I have been selected by CFO publishing to officially blog on their Corporate Performance Management Conference to be held in Dallas, Texas, September 11-13, 2011. The focus of the conference will be improving business analysis and bottom-line performance. As you know, both topics are near and dear to my heart, so I look forward to hearing what the great line-up of speakers will have to say on the topic.

Speakers will include:

• Thomas Davenport, President’s Distinguished Professor of Information Technology, Babson College; author, Competing on Analytics and Analytics at Work
• Wayne Eckerson, Founder and President, BI Leadership Forum; author, Performance Dashboards: Measuring, Monitoring, and Managing Your Business
• Eric Lundberg, SVP & CFO, ALM
• Steve Player, North America Program Director, Beyond Budgeting Round Table (BBRT)
• Robin Washington, SVP & CFO, Gilead Sciences Inc.

If your business could benefit from better understanding the processes, structures, tools and people required to achieve the kinds of changes necessary to make you more profitable tomorrow than you are today, then this conference could be just the ticket for you or some members of your management team. By clicking here, on the picture above, or the CPM icon in the column to the right of this post you can register now. Better yet, by entering the code “BLOG” along with your registration, you can save $400 off the normal registration price! Don’t delay your registration. Do it today.

This is your opportunity to learn from real movers-and-shakers about how to leverage dashboards, budgeting, planning, and forecasting toward improving your firm’s bottom-line. Even assessing the performance of  your supply chain and the inherent risks you might face are covered.

See you there!